Vienīgi tas video ir gandrīz 2 mēnešus vecs.

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Sep 08 bet tik un tā ļoti informatīva. Vīnš (Ivor Cummins) turpina taisīt videos ja vajag kaut ko svaigāk.

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Inženieris, kas agrāk rakstīja grāmatas par treknu, bet veselīgu ēdienu (un garu dzīvi)?
Labi, pagaidīsim decembri/ janvāri.

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Yup: viņš ļoti sakarīgi savāca informāciju. Varbūt tu domā, ka full lockdown Irijā kurā ir ap 3 daily deaths ir normāl? Daži zinatnieki tā domā - viņiem ši ir zvaigžnu stunda -- listen to me, mortal, for I am the prophet of doom.

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Neesmu experts, tāpat kā viņš, un viņa interpretācija man līdz galam nepārliecina.
Varbūt dažas valstis ar lockdauniem bija pārspīlējušas. Laikam tāda stratēģija piekopta pirmo reizi, tikai vēlāk būs redzams, cik šis eksperiments attaisnoja sevi.
...gan jau arī epidemiologi ir tikai cilvēki, un viņi vienkārši varbūt negrib riskēt (ar cilvēku dzīvībām, kas it kā būtu uz viņu sirdsapziņas), tāpēc iesaka max piesardzību. Protams, gala lēmumus pieņem mūsu ievēlētās valdības.

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kas tieši no video nepārliecina?
Par lockdauniem, nekad nevar zināt 100% par to, cik tie ir efektīvi. Ja it kā nedarbojās, tad atbilde varētu būt 'k dievs vajadzētu pat skarbāks lockdauns', vai arī 'oi, bet iedomājies, cik sliktāk būtu bijis ja nebūtu lockdauns'.
Vien lieta ir skaidra - nav nekāda zinātnieku vienotība par šo leitu.
Lēmumi ir pieņemti augstāk - skaties Event 201 ja tev nav slinkums. Tad zināsi, ko upper management domā.

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Tāda sajūta...

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pff

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Ko tas nozīmē?

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eh vai ehk vai tff

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OK.
Kā jau teicu, neesmu ne eksperts, ne šīs jomas citizen scientist, tāpēc tikai sajūtu līmenī varu vērtēt.

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labi ... let us all unwashed get out of the way. All we can do is feel, after all. I will be awaiting instructions from the official technocrat class. If I have any questions, I will reprimand myself for the ungrounded audacity, and keep quiet.

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Kaut kāda tāda ir tā sistēma - mēs ievēlam valdības, tās noalgo ekspertus, bet pēc tam pašas izvēlas, kurās rekomendācijās ieklausīties.
Haidparkā drīkst izteikties jebkurš (tāda ir tā tradīcija?), tagad - arī FB-ā un YT-ā. Tas var būt arī ceļš uz politiku un varu.
...bet arī zinātnēs ļoti bieži tas ir ticības jautājums, kurai teorijai vai pieejai tu tici. Vajadzīgos argumentus, pierādījumus un interpretācijas jau nav grūti pielasīt.
...par plakano zemi gan šaubītos.

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"Haidparkā drīkst izteikties jebkurš (tāda ir tā tradīcija?), tagad - arī FB-ā un YT-ā. Tas var būt arī ceļš uz politiku un varu."

Smejies? Neesi pamanījis, ka socmedijops notiek politiska cenzūra? Un Haidparkā. Tas ir UK. Ļoti šaubos, ka tur var izteikties. UK ir viena no jaunā mūsdienu totalitārisma pirmrindniecēm.

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OK, es ūdens ttos maisītājus kvintiljards reižu arī nobannotu.

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Nobanotu arī, ja neesi speciālists, kompetents šajā jautājumā?
Nobanotu tikai tāpēc, ka tici kadam/kādiem, kuri izteikušies, ka tas nav iespējams tāpēc, ka tas nav iespējams nekad? ;)

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Ambainis ļoti smuki uz papīra sarēķināja un parādīja, cik miljardi gadi būtu nepieciešami, lai ko tādu veiktu. Es ticu pasaulē atzītam un ģeniālam matemātiķim, nevis kaut kādiem frīciņiem-komersantiņiem.

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Bet tu tieši komersantiņiem arī tici.

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Tu domā Soross un Geitss?
Protams, viņi ir šo-to savā dzīvē izdarījuši.

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Nav svarīgi. Tev GRIBAS kādam ticēt kā virsējai instancei, bez kritiskas pieejas.

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Jā!

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Ar to pierādi, ka esi muļķis, autoritāšticīgais, nevis domājošs, nopietni ņemams diskusijas partneris.

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Piekrītu, un jau vairākas reizes te rakstīju, ka šī nav mana joma :((

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))))

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"Es ticu pasaulē atzītam un ģeniālam matemātiķim."
Neil Ferguson, piemēram ?

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Pirmo reizi dzirdu, nav mana joma. ...un pasaulē ir simtiem tādu profesoru, un vienmēr kāds izcelsies ar kaut ko nedaudz kontraversālu.

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google him, vecit ;)

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Jā, izmeta viņu no valdības C19 komisijas. Laikam par daudz zināja.

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zināja, ka 500,000 nomirtu no CvD UK

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Tad viņš bija par sharp lockdown?!

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o jā - pats to neievēroja :)

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Ambainis ir izcils matemātiķis, bet viņš nav speciālists tajā jomā, par kuru tu izteicies.

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Jā, viņš nav astrologs vai ezotērisko zinātņu kandidāts.

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Dzelžains arguments ;D

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Pirmkārt, Ambainis ir fiziķis.

Otrkārt, šai gadījumā Ambainis neizteicās pat par ūdens molekulām.

Viņš vienkārši sarēķināja, cik laika vajag, lai pie nosauktajām "kvintiljards" reizēm un noteiktā griešanas ātruma varētu tik daudz reizū ūdeni izvirpuļot.

Tur nevajag būt ne ģeniālam, ne matemātiķim, pietiek ar pirmajām 4 klasēm, lai sareizinātu divus skaitļus. OK, "kvintiljards" ir milzu skaitlis, tur noder pāris klases vēlāk apgūstamās darbības ar desmitnieka pakāpēm.

Tāpat tālāk par vidusskolu nevajag.

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Paldies, ka tik izsmeļoši paskaidroji to cilvēkam ar fizmatu izglītību.

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Acīmredzot vajadzēja.

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Tev, acīmredzot, vajadzēja - ne jau man.
Jo es, piemēram, zinu, ka Ambainis ir matemātiķis nevis fiziķis. It kā sīkums, bet pietiekami skaidri parāda, ar cik kompetentu sarunas biedru man darīšana.

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Vispārīgi runājot, mēs ar viņu mācījāmies kādu kursu kopā LU datorzinību fakultātē, un tālākās studijas arī viņam bija Computer Science, tā kā viņš nav ne viens, ne otrs. Bet interesanti, ka izdevās tevi noķert.

Es apbrīnoju, kā tu pārej no tēmas par to, vai jebko vispār var savirpināt kvintiljards reižu, uz pretinieka kvalifikācijas novērtējumu.

Taču neizskatās, ka tu esi kvalificēts to novērtēt. Karodziņš tev par trollēšanu, un visu labu. :)

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Izrādās, ka "kvintiljardus" nosaucis kaut kāds profāns diskusijā, kurā Ambainis viņu pieķēris analfabētismā.
Es biju domājis kādu pavisam citu tēmu, nevis "dzīvo ūdeni". Tādā gadījumā atvainojos, jo par blēžu un šarlatānu biznesiem neinteresējos un nesekoju līdz šādām "aktualitātēm'.

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Vakar Ivars bija Kisina kanaalaa. Populaaraakaa liimenii, bet no daudziem aspektiem

https://youtu.be/rmoM1AMdd4g

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plus Ji-i-idens pie Delingpole

https://youtu.be/rmoM1AMdd4g

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Kas tavuprāt šajā "sistēmā" ir upper management?

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Daži dalībnieki Event 201 varētu būt, piemēram

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Un tieši kā viņi var menedžēt kaut ko citās valstīs? Zviedriju tad laikam neizdevās nomenedžēt? =)

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Tu esi skatījies to eventu? Parunāsim pēc tam. Būs tev manuprāt interesanti.

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Skatījos, bet visu neesmu noskatījies, ļoti garš. Bet es tur neko TĀDU nesaskatīju. Nu, uztaisīja simulāciju pagājušogad, laika sakritība. Stokholmā pirms terorakta 2017.g. tieši bija mācības policijai, kā rīkoties teroraktu gadījumā. Ja nemaldos, 2 dienas pirms terorakta. Man tagad jāsecina, ka valdība sarīkoja teroraktu?

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Well, pay attention to what the World Bank rep has to say about 'returns on investment' for example.
The control of the narrative took about half of the event - I would say that is a high-level discussion on managing humankind.
The General (I think) thought it would be a great opportunity to collect Big Data on why we think like we do.
When nation states were mentioned, the high and mighty declared that they should be kept stable, but under control.
There should also be a central authority controlling the response, and we can see their message (Great Reset + Build Back Better) being repeated by heads of state.
I m looking at it at this kind of level.
Regarding terror acts and training events (911 for example), you are welcome to dive as deep in rabbit holes as you like :)

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You would like the world to be that simple, wouldn't you?

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You don't think there is and has been a trend for supranational control for some time?

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These people WANT this control. And they imagine themselves as at least low level controllers, because they are so loyal to such establishment.

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Trend, for sure. There are always people who are for that.

The difference at the moment, as, say, compared to 19th century Britain, 18th century Russia, and many others at the same as well as at different times, is that at this point in time, empires are frequently attempted to be built without much war.

I consider that an improvement.

As we are a physically small country and an underpopulated nation, our best bet, it seems to me, is to sail close to a strong, but not violence-oriented block, such as EU, and try to steer it, insofar, as we have any influence at all, along the existing status quo (that would be, away from too much federalization, and away from too much decentralization). And, by the way, the level of influence we have as a member of EU, is unprecedented for a country of our smallness.

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Well it would seem we both share a desire to hold a simplistic world view, old chap.

There are, indeed, always people who are up for supranational control, and sometimes with rather unpleasant intentions. Regarding the EU and the 'upper management' that I alluded to higher up this thread, I would point out that they (corporations, banks and so on) constitute a formidable lobbying power on the Commission. I used to have to travel to Brussels a couple of times a year and if you got the bus from the airport you'd see the their HQs dominate the view.

As regards the influence Latvia has on the EU, I ought to point out that she has no influence on monetary policy, little influence on immigration policy (I'm referring to the majority vote in 2015), and if she is still part of the fiscal pact, little room for, let's say Keynsian economic policy. Regarding the Parliament she has 8 or 9 MEPS out of 751, so I am assuming that the unprecedented influence you state she has comes from the Council?

Back to the upper management: when I watched the Event 201, I saw a carve up of pie subtly negotiated by the interest groups. You could view it simply as that if you like. The extent to which their strings are being pulled (or not) is another question. One, I suspect you have an aversion to considering or discussing.

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What you say is relatively true, regarding Latvia's current influence, but what are you comparing it with?

Do you think things would be geopolitically in any way better for Latvia, if it was outside EU? I would consider it a pipe dream, but I am open to arguments as to why that might not be true.

It seems best, if we could compare to some other country of more or less similar size, in Europe, outside EU. That gives us Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, North Makedonia and Moldova. I welcome comparisons.

I have no aversion to considering strings being pulled. I just don't see it as very productive, as (a) we have little reliable information, and (b) even if we have much information, what means do we have to do anything about whatever information we have? However, we can discuss whatever you would like to, for sure.

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Might be nicer to do that over a beer or two than on social media :)

In general, though, and I suppose I am still stung from the 'simple-world-view' jibe, it seems that you agree with my point, more or less. I mean to the extent that a kind of supranational power exists, which obviously requires management that incorporates interest groups. That is pretty much all I had stated. I think it is especially important to recognise this when it comes to changes that will be brought about in our lives as a result of the reaction to CvD - i.e, for whose benefit are these changes?

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Essentially I agree with you on that.

What might be the misunderstanding I caused, is that I don't believe in efficient supranational conspiracies whereby a small group of individuals pull the world strings with very meaningful goals (especially long term goals). That was the idea of my "world is not that simple" comment.

However, at all times there are groups and factions (especially those with already some power) who wish to impose things to their advantage on larger communities. That seems to me to be just the nature of humanity.

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Well, and very little of this is actually being implemented. So many countries started messing with border controls and heavy travel restrictions, which is nonsense practically and only political signalling - as far as I recall from 201 they were against such moves. You see very few countries, like Sweden, holding against this trend.

Central authority? Oh boy, there is none, don't you see?

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Are there border restrictions on travel or freight?

The travel restrictions are there as a means of getting people to agree to bio ID, vaccine passes etc.

As for the existence/non-existence of central authorities, see my conversation with Begemotu (man slinkums atkartoties). I would just add that we are seeing WEF talking points like 'Great Reset' and 'build back better' finding their way into the lexicon of politicians - together with 'new normal', of course.

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I follow mostly Swedish news, and there has been absolutely no mention of such talking points, not even anything similar. There is a broad consensus that mild and acceptable restrictions, mostly in the form of recommendations, will be there for a bit longer time, through-out next year probably. That's about Sweden. Regarding Latvia I have to say I have lost patience to follow their news too closely, because so much idiocy is being said and done. I think the most spectacular was the public claim in May about how successful Latvia is in fighting covid. Now we see where this baseless self-righteousness has led.

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Not even 'new normal'? Wow, Sweden, eh? Who would have thought it?

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Nope, no such expressions in Swedish public domain.

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Kas jebkuros laikos ir "upper management"? Tie, kam ir daudz naudas un varas. Cilvēki, ka iedomājas, ka dzīvo "demokrātijā" ir naivi. Tā ir tikai feelgood fasāde.

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Tātad tu saki, ka tā ir Baltā Brālība Himalajos?

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Kas tas tāds būtu? Visdrīzāk nesaku neko tādu un tavi salmu vīri ir slapji.

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Skatoties, kaa pieaugushi viirieshi ziedo savu laiku, barojot retardeetus troljljus, rodas iespaids, ka naakamaa aktivitaate vareetu buut kneeling

:R

Īsumā - kurvis ir flats(līkne iztaisnota). Jeiii, urā, apsveicu un taisiet beidzot visu vaļā, velsarārā.

Any graphic that uses "coronavirus deaths" is suspect by definition, because: (a) every country counts these differently, (b) even the same country may record them differently at different time, and (c) there will be unpredictable mistaken records both ways.

What will work is comparison of actual death tolls per month for this year compared to past years (let's say, include at least one recent year with high flu mortality, at least 1 recent year with low flu mortality, and at least 1 year with median death rates for the decade). Whatever effects would be there, would by definition include all coronavirus effects.

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Skaties no 2:30

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This is very encouraging, in fact.

It seems to mean that whatever increase in COVID cases we have now, is going to be not as sharp as the previous one.

The devil is in the details, however, so I would like to point out that he deals with total deaths only at around the 2:30 point you mentioned, and as far as I could see from there, the rest of the video has graphs, which again deal only with recorded COVID cases. Which, once again, are, unfortunately, subject to interpretation.

When he talks about Sweden later on, for example, he compares Imperial college etc. graphs with actual COVID deaths recorded. However, Sweden was very lax in doing COVID tests even up to June (see, eg. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1133055/weekly-number-of-coronavirus-tests-in-sweden/ ), so it doesn't make sense to use COVID graphs for that. Nothing, but total deaths in country per period, in all comparisons, seems to be meaningful.

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Agreed (I think). The number of cases (positive tests) mean nothing on their own. We need not only to get a good idea of the false positive rate, the information about a rise in the number needs also to be given with info about the number of tests carried out (which does happen in LV). Most people in the UK, seem (I think) to have no idea we are now running at about 300,000/day. compared to about 20,000 a day in Spring (I think those numbers are correct).

The media over there is, on the whole, unremittingly doom-laden - which makes me suspicious.

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