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[Oct. 22nd, 2020|03:46 pm]
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Domāju, ka šis ir vislabākais par Cvd, ko esmu skatījis.

Kariņš, tāpat ka Johnson ir 'middle management' šinī sistemā.
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Comments:
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 04:23 pm
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Vienīgi tas video ir gandrīz 2 mēnešus vecs.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 04:35 pm
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Sep 08 bet tik un tā ļoti informatīva. Vīnš (Ivor Cummins) turpina taisīt videos ja vajag kaut ko svaigāk.
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 04:45 pm
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Inženieris, kas agrāk rakstīja grāmatas par treknu, bet veselīgu ēdienu (un garu dzīvi)?
Labi, pagaidīsim decembri/ janvāri.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 04:54 pm
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Yup: viņš ļoti sakarīgi savāca informāciju. Varbūt tu domā, ka full lockdown Irijā kurā ir ap 3 daily deaths ir normāl? Daži zinatnieki tā domā - viņiem ši ir zvaigžnu stunda -- listen to me, mortal, for I am the prophet of doom.
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:02 pm
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Neesmu experts, tāpat kā viņš, un viņa interpretācija man līdz galam nepārliecina.
Varbūt dažas valstis ar lockdauniem bija pārspīlējušas. Laikam tāda stratēģija piekopta pirmo reizi, tikai vēlāk būs redzams, cik šis eksperiments attaisnoja sevi.
...gan jau arī epidemiologi ir tikai cilvēki, un viņi vienkārši varbūt negrib riskēt (ar cilvēku dzīvībām, kas it kā būtu uz viņu sirdsapziņas), tāpēc iesaka max piesardzību. Protams, gala lēmumus pieņem mūsu ievēlētās valdības.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:10 pm
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kas tieši no video nepārliecina?
Par lockdauniem, nekad nevar zināt 100% par to, cik tie ir efektīvi. Ja it kā nedarbojās, tad atbilde varētu būt 'k dievs vajadzētu pat skarbāks lockdauns', vai arī 'oi, bet iedomājies, cik sliktāk būtu bijis ja nebūtu lockdauns'.
Vien lieta ir skaidra - nav nekāda zinātnieku vienotība par šo leitu.
Lēmumi ir pieņemti augstāk - skaties Event 201 ja tev nav slinkums. Tad zināsi, ko upper management domā.
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:13 pm
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Tāda sajūta...
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:16 pm
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pff
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:20 pm
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Ko tas nozīmē?
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:22 pm
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eh vai ehk vai tff
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:25 pm
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OK.
Kā jau teicu, neesmu ne eksperts, ne šīs jomas citizen scientist, tāpēc tikai sajūtu līmenī varu vērtēt.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 05:30 pm
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labi ... let us all unwashed get out of the way. All we can do is feel, after all. I will be awaiting instructions from the official technocrat class. If I have any questions, I will reprimand myself for the ungrounded audacity, and keep quiet.
From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 06:56 pm
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Kaut kāda tāda ir tā sistēma - mēs ievēlam valdības, tās noalgo ekspertus, bet pēc tam pašas izvēlas, kurās rekomendācijās ieklausīties.
Haidparkā drīkst izteikties jebkurš (tāda ir tā tradīcija?), tagad - arī FB-ā un YT-ā. Tas var būt arī ceļš uz politiku un varu.
...bet arī zinātnēs ļoti bieži tas ir ticības jautājums, kurai teorijai vai pieejai tu tici. Vajadzīgos argumentus, pierādījumus un interpretācijas jau nav grūti pielasīt.
...par plakano zemi gan šaubītos.
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From:[info]gnidrologs
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:00 pm
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"Haidparkā drīkst izteikties jebkurš (tāda ir tā tradīcija?), tagad - arī FB-ā un YT-ā. Tas var būt arī ceļš uz politiku un varu."

Smejies? Neesi pamanījis, ka socmedijops notiek politiska cenzūra? Un Haidparkā. Tas ir UK. Ļoti šaubos, ka tur var izteikties. UK ir viena no jaunā mūsdienu totalitārisma pirmrindniecēm.
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:20 pm
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OK, es ūdens ttos maisītājus kvintiljards reižu arī nobannotu.
From:[info]3koma14vs007
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:28 pm
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Nobanotu arī, ja neesi speciālists, kompetents šajā jautājumā?
Nobanotu tikai tāpēc, ka tici kadam/kādiem, kuri izteikušies, ka tas nav iespējams tāpēc, ka tas nav iespējams nekad? ;)
From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:02 pm
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Ambainis ļoti smuki uz papīra sarēķināja un parādīja, cik miljardi gadi būtu nepieciešami, lai ko tādu veiktu. Es ticu pasaulē atzītam un ģeniālam matemātiķim, nevis kaut kādiem frīciņiem-komersantiņiem.
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From:[info]gnidrologs
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:11 pm
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Bet tu tieši komersantiņiem arī tici.
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:21 pm
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Tu domā Soross un Geitss?
Protams, viņi ir šo-to savā dzīvē izdarījuši.
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From:[info]gnidrologs
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:25 pm
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Nav svarīgi. Tev GRIBAS kādam ticēt kā virsējai instancei, bez kritiskas pieejas.
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:34 pm
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Jā!
From:[info]3koma14vs007
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:39 pm
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Ar to pierādi, ka esi muļķis, autoritāšticīgais, nevis domājošs, nopietni ņemams diskusijas partneris.
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:42 pm
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Piekrītu, un jau vairākas reizes te rakstīju, ka šī nav mana joma :((
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From:[info]martcore
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 08:32 pm
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))))
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:23 pm
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"Es ticu pasaulē atzītam un ģeniālam matemātiķim."
Neil Ferguson, piemēram ?
From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:29 pm
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Pirmo reizi dzirdu, nav mana joma. ...un pasaulē ir simtiem tādu profesoru, un vienmēr kāds izcelsies ar kaut ko nedaudz kontraversālu.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:31 pm
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google him, vecit ;)
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:35 pm
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Jā, izmeta viņu no valdības C19 komisijas. Laikam par daudz zināja.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:40 pm
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zināja, ka 500,000 nomirtu no CvD UK
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From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:43 pm
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Tad viņš bija par sharp lockdown?!
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:44 pm
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o jā - pats to neievēroja :)
From:[info]3koma14vs007
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:28 pm
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Ambainis ir izcils matemātiķis, bet viņš nav speciālists tajā jomā, par kuru tu izteicies.
From:[info]jd
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:31 pm
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Jā, viņš nav astrologs vai ezotērisko zinātņu kandidāts.
From:[info]3koma14vs007
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:35 pm
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Dzelžains arguments ;D
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:39 pm
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Pirmkārt, Ambainis ir fiziķis.

Otrkārt, šai gadījumā Ambainis neizteicās pat par ūdens molekulām.

Viņš vienkārši sarēķināja, cik laika vajag, lai pie nosauktajām "kvintiljards" reizēm un noteiktā griešanas ātruma varētu tik daudz reizū ūdeni izvirpuļot.

Tur nevajag būt ne ģeniālam, ne matemātiķim, pietiek ar pirmajām 4 klasēm, lai sareizinātu divus skaitļus. OK, "kvintiljards" ir milzu skaitlis, tur noder pāris klases vēlāk apgūstamās darbības ar desmitnieka pakāpēm.

Tāpat tālāk par vidusskolu nevajag.
From:[info]3koma14vs007
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:51 pm
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Paldies, ka tik izsmeļoši paskaidroji to cilvēkam ar fizmatu izglītību.
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 10:17 am
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Acīmredzot vajadzēja.
From:[info]3koma14vs007
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 10:33 am
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Tev, acīmredzot, vajadzēja - ne jau man.
Jo es, piemēram, zinu, ka Ambainis ir matemātiķis nevis fiziķis. It kā sīkums, bet pietiekami skaidri parāda, ar cik kompetentu sarunas biedru man darīšana.
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 10:40 am
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Vispārīgi runājot, mēs ar viņu mācījāmies kādu kursu kopā LU datorzinību fakultātē, un tālākās studijas arī viņam bija Computer Science, tā kā viņš nav ne viens, ne otrs. Bet interesanti, ka izdevās tevi noķert.

Es apbrīnoju, kā tu pārej no tēmas par to, vai jebko vispār var savirpināt kvintiljards reižu, uz pretinieka kvalifikācijas novērtējumu.

Taču neizskatās, ka tu esi kvalificēts to novērtēt. Karodziņš tev par trollēšanu, un visu labu. :)
From:[info]3koma14vs007
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 11:03 am
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Izrādās, ka "kvintiljardus" nosaucis kaut kāds profāns diskusijā, kurā Ambainis viņu pieķēris analfabētismā.
Es biju domājis kādu pavisam citu tēmu, nevis "dzīvo ūdeni". Tādā gadījumā atvainojos, jo par blēžu un šarlatānu biznesiem neinteresējos un nesekoju līdz šādām "aktualitātēm'.
From:[info]formica
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 06:47 pm
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Vakar Ivars bija Kisina kanaalaa. Populaaraakaa liimenii, bet no daudziem aspektiem

https://youtu.be/rmoM1AMdd4g
From:[info]formica
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:34 pm
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plus Ji-i-idens pie Delingpole

https://youtu.be/rmoM1AMdd4g
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 06:49 pm
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Kas tavuprāt šajā "sistēmā" ir upper management?
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 06:55 pm
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Daži dalībnieki Event 201 varētu būt, piemēram
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:18 pm
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Un tieši kā viņi var menedžēt kaut ko citās valstīs? Zviedriju tad laikam neizdevās nomenedžēt? =)
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:23 pm
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Tu esi skatījies to eventu? Parunāsim pēc tam. Būs tev manuprāt interesanti.
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:54 pm
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Skatījos, bet visu neesmu noskatījies, ļoti garš. Bet es tur neko TĀDU nesaskatīju. Nu, uztaisīja simulāciju pagājušogad, laika sakritība. Stokholmā pirms terorakta 2017.g. tieši bija mācības policijai, kā rīkoties teroraktu gadījumā. Ja nemaldos, 2 dienas pirms terorakta. Man tagad jāsecina, ka valdība sarīkoja teroraktu?
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:30 pm
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Well, pay attention to what the World Bank rep has to say about 'returns on investment' for example.
The control of the narrative took about half of the event - I would say that is a high-level discussion on managing humankind.
The General (I think) thought it would be a great opportunity to collect Big Data on why we think like we do.
When nation states were mentioned, the high and mighty declared that they should be kept stable, but under control.
There should also be a central authority controlling the response, and we can see their message (Great Reset + Build Back Better) being repeated by heads of state.
I m looking at it at this kind of level.
Regarding terror acts and training events (911 for example), you are welcome to dive as deep in rabbit holes as you like :)
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:41 pm
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You would like the world to be that simple, wouldn't you?
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:46 pm
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You don't think there is and has been a trend for supranational control for some time?
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From:[info]gnidrologs
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:53 pm
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These people WANT this control. And they imagine themselves as at least low level controllers, because they are so loyal to such establishment.
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 12:27 am
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Trend, for sure. There are always people who are for that.

The difference at the moment, as, say, compared to 19th century Britain, 18th century Russia, and many others at the same as well as at different times, is that at this point in time, empires are frequently attempted to be built without much war.

I consider that an improvement.

As we are a physically small country and an underpopulated nation, our best bet, it seems to me, is to sail close to a strong, but not violence-oriented block, such as EU, and try to steer it, insofar, as we have any influence at all, along the existing status quo (that would be, away from too much federalization, and away from too much decentralization). And, by the way, the level of influence we have as a member of EU, is unprecedented for a country of our smallness.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 09:55 am
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Well it would seem we both share a desire to hold a simplistic world view, old chap.

There are, indeed, always people who are up for supranational control, and sometimes with rather unpleasant intentions. Regarding the EU and the 'upper management' that I alluded to higher up this thread, I would point out that they (corporations, banks and so on) constitute a formidable lobbying power on the Commission. I used to have to travel to Brussels a couple of times a year and if you got the bus from the airport you'd see the their HQs dominate the view.

As regards the influence Latvia has on the EU, I ought to point out that she has no influence on monetary policy, little influence on immigration policy (I'm referring to the majority vote in 2015), and if she is still part of the fiscal pact, little room for, let's say Keynsian economic policy. Regarding the Parliament she has 8 or 9 MEPS out of 751, so I am assuming that the unprecedented influence you state she has comes from the Council?

Back to the upper management: when I watched the Event 201, I saw a carve up of pie subtly negotiated by the interest groups. You could view it simply as that if you like. The extent to which their strings are being pulled (or not) is another question. One, I suspect you have an aversion to considering or discussing.
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 10:33 am
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What you say is relatively true, regarding Latvia's current influence, but what are you comparing it with?

Do you think things would be geopolitically in any way better for Latvia, if it was outside EU? I would consider it a pipe dream, but I am open to arguments as to why that might not be true.

It seems best, if we could compare to some other country of more or less similar size, in Europe, outside EU. That gives us Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, North Makedonia and Moldova. I welcome comparisons.

I have no aversion to considering strings being pulled. I just don't see it as very productive, as (a) we have little reliable information, and (b) even if we have much information, what means do we have to do anything about whatever information we have? However, we can discuss whatever you would like to, for sure.

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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 10:39 am
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Might be nicer to do that over a beer or two than on social media :)

In general, though, and I suppose I am still stung from the 'simple-world-view' jibe, it seems that you agree with my point, more or less. I mean to the extent that a kind of supranational power exists, which obviously requires management that incorporates interest groups. That is pretty much all I had stated. I think it is especially important to recognise this when it comes to changes that will be brought about in our lives as a result of the reaction to CvD - i.e, for whose benefit are these changes?
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 10:54 am
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Essentially I agree with you on that.

What might be the misunderstanding I caused, is that I don't believe in efficient supranational conspiracies whereby a small group of individuals pull the world strings with very meaningful goals (especially long term goals). That was the idea of my "world is not that simple" comment.

However, at all times there are groups and factions (especially those with already some power) who wish to impose things to their advantage on larger communities. That seems to me to be just the nature of humanity.
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 11:49 am
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Well, and very little of this is actually being implemented. So many countries started messing with border controls and heavy travel restrictions, which is nonsense practically and only political signalling - as far as I recall from 201 they were against such moves. You see very few countries, like Sweden, holding against this trend.

Central authority? Oh boy, there is none, don't you see?
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 12:00 pm
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Are there border restrictions on travel or freight?

The travel restrictions are there as a means of getting people to agree to bio ID, vaccine passes etc.

As for the existence/non-existence of central authorities, see my conversation with Begemotu (man slinkums atkartoties). I would just add that we are seeing WEF talking points like 'Great Reset' and 'build back better' finding their way into the lexicon of politicians - together with 'new normal', of course.
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 05:21 pm
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I follow mostly Swedish news, and there has been absolutely no mention of such talking points, not even anything similar. There is a broad consensus that mild and acceptable restrictions, mostly in the form of recommendations, will be there for a bit longer time, through-out next year probably. That's about Sweden. Regarding Latvia I have to say I have lost patience to follow their news too closely, because so much idiocy is being said and done. I think the most spectacular was the public claim in May about how successful Latvia is in fighting covid. Now we see where this baseless self-righteousness has led.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 05:27 pm
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Not even 'new normal'? Wow, Sweden, eh? Who would have thought it?
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 26th, 2020 - 11:07 am
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Nope, no such expressions in Swedish public domain.
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From:[info]gnidrologs
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:02 pm
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Kas jebkuros laikos ir "upper management"? Tie, kam ir daudz naudas un varas. Cilvēki, ka iedomājas, ka dzīvo "demokrātijā" ir naivi. Tā ir tikai feelgood fasāde.
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From:[info]adirred
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 07:20 pm
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Tātad tu saki, ka tā ir Baltā Brālība Himalajos?
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From:[info]gnidrologs
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:12 pm
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Kas tas tāds būtu? Visdrīzāk nesaku neko tādu un tavi salmu vīri ir slapji.
From:[info]formica
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 08:40 pm
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Skatoties, kaa pieaugushi viirieshi ziedo savu laiku, barojot retardeetus troljljus, rodas iespaids, ka naakamaa aktivitaate vareetu buut kneeling

:R
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From:[info]mapats
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:28 pm
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Īsumā - kurvis ir flats(līkne iztaisnota). Jeiii, urā, apsveicu un taisiet beidzot visu vaļā, velsarārā.
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:46 pm
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Any graphic that uses "coronavirus deaths" is suspect by definition, because: (a) every country counts these differently, (b) even the same country may record them differently at different time, and (c) there will be unpredictable mistaken records both ways.

What will work is comparison of actual death tolls per month for this year compared to past years (let's say, include at least one recent year with high flu mortality, at least 1 recent year with low flu mortality, and at least 1 year with median death rates for the decade). Whatever effects would be there, would by definition include all coronavirus effects.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 22nd, 2020 - 09:59 pm
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Skaties no 2:30
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From:[info]begemots
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 10:50 am
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This is very encouraging, in fact.

It seems to mean that whatever increase in COVID cases we have now, is going to be not as sharp as the previous one.

The devil is in the details, however, so I would like to point out that he deals with total deaths only at around the 2:30 point you mentioned, and as far as I could see from there, the rest of the video has graphs, which again deal only with recorded COVID cases. Which, once again, are, unfortunately, subject to interpretation.

When he talks about Sweden later on, for example, he compares Imperial college etc. graphs with actual COVID deaths recorded. However, Sweden was very lax in doing COVID tests even up to June (see, eg. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1133055/weekly-number-of-coronavirus-tests-in-sweden/ ), so it doesn't make sense to use COVID graphs for that. Nothing, but total deaths in country per period, in all comparisons, seems to be meaningful.
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From:[info]brookings
Date:October 23rd, 2020 - 11:00 am
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Agreed (I think). The number of cases (positive tests) mean nothing on their own. We need not only to get a good idea of the false positive rate, the information about a rise in the number needs also to be given with info about the number of tests carried out (which does happen in LV). Most people in the UK, seem (I think) to have no idea we are now running at about 300,000/day. compared to about 20,000 a day in Spring (I think those numbers are correct).

The media over there is, on the whole, unremittingly doom-laden - which makes me suspicious.