None of the Above ([info]artis) rakstīja,
@ 2018-01-03 14:21:00

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Dude, you broke the future!
"I think transhumanism is a warmed-over Christian heresy. While its adherents tend to be vehement atheists, they can't quite escape from the history that gave rise to our current western civilization. Many of you are familiar with design patterns, an approach to software engineering that focusses on abstraction and simplification in order to promote reusable code. When you look at the AI singularity as a narrative, and identify the numerous places in the story where the phrase "... and then a miracle happens" occurs, it becomes apparent pretty quickly that they've reinvented Christianity.

Indeed, the wellsprings of today's transhumanists draw on a long, rich history of Russian Cosmist philosophy exemplified by the Russian Orthodox theologian Nikolai Fyodorvitch Federov, by way of his disciple Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, whose derivation of the rocket equation makes him essentially the father of modern spaceflight. And once you start probing the nether regions of transhumanist thought and run into concepts like Roko's Basilisk—by the way, any of you who didn't know about the Basilisk before are now doomed to an eternity in AI hell—you realize they've mangled it to match some of the nastiest ideas in Presybterian Protestantism.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. And if it looks like a religion it's probably a religion. I don't see much evidence for human-like, self-directed artificial intelligences coming along any time now, and a fair bit of evidence that nobody except some freaks in university cognitive science departments even want it. What we're getting, instead, is self-optimizing tools that defy human comprehension but are not, in fact, any more like our kind of intelligence than a Boeing 737 is like a seagull. So I'm going to wash my hands of the singularity as an explanatory model without further ado—I'm one of those vehement atheists too—and try and come up with a better model for what's happening to us."

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2018/01/dude-you-broke-the-future.html


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[info]mindbound
2018-01-03 17:07 (saite)
"I don't see much evidence for human-like, self-directed artificial intelligences coming along any time now, and a fair bit of evidence that nobody except some freaks in university cognitive science departments even want it. What we're getting, instead, is self-optimizing tools that defy human comprehension but are not, in fact, any more like our kind of intelligence than a Boeing 737 is like a seagull."

Šajā rindkopā slēpjas izejas punkts Štrosa secinājumam, ko es uzskatu par aplamu. Iekrāsoti ir divi atslēgas apgalvojumi, kas abi ir potenciāli patiesi, bet gandrīz pilnīgi noteikti nerelevanti attiecībā uz AI superintelligence iespējamību. Vēl vairāk, tieši aprakstītais scenārijs (superjaudīgi automātiski optimizatori, kuru kapacitāte tālu pārsniedz ne tikai cilvēka spējas, bet arī izpratni, un kuru tapšana nav atkarīga no tā, cik un vai tos vēlas nejauši izvēlēts indivīds) ne tikai ir ļoti ticams ceļš uz šādiem AI, bet arī ir novērojams jau šobrīd, kaut arī pagaidām šaurāk specializētā veidā.

(Atbildēt uz šo)


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