Here is what we know:

1. The Russians are drowning or abandoning positions they worked on and equipped for more than 6 months(at the minimum 6).

2. Crimea is out of fresh water.

3. The Dnipro River bed( downstream and upstream of the blown up dam) is sand that drains well.

4. Ukraine has and got from NATO a lot of amphibious IFVs.

5. Some high ranking Ukrainian officials (like Vitalii Kim) yesterday posted a "fingers crossed" emoji in their telegram. Kim did this in the past when Ukraine made a move, especially in the South.