Jā varbūt - es nezinu. Es tiešam cenšos saprast šo visu. Piemēram nesen lasīju šo no "Public Health Ontario". Viņiem ir šis secinājums par augstiem CT ... err, thresholdiem:

"This suggests that a high Ct positive result is more likely to be false positive when observed in an asymptomatic patient with no epidemiological links to cases during low community prevalence of disease. However, it is difficult to know exactly which patients among this subgroup are true positive versus false positive, as we know that not all true positive high Ct positive specimens are repeat positive when retested on the same or a
different platform."

Ta tad, es domāju,ka amplifikācijas cikla skaits it svarīgs - it īpaši, kad nemsim verā, ka resultāti tiek izmantoti, lai izlemtu par ierobežojumiem utt. Un turklāt, kad "The COVID-19 pandemic has led to large scale testing of asymptomatic persons with low pretest probability, a practice not previously employed for any respiratory viral pathogen." [https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/main/2020/09/cycle-threshold-values-sars-cov2-pcr.pdf?la=en]

Par visu-iemeslu mirstību, es pilnīgi tev piekrītu. Es tikai neredzu tieši to, ko tu redzi manos grafikos. Es redzu, ka mirtstība auga nesen tikai vecākiem cilvēkiem (75+). Tagad situācija ir uzlabojusies (nu pēdējo reizi, kad pārbaudiju). Par populācijas lielumu, jā atkāl piekritu. 2010 bija 2,118,855 un 2020 bija 1,886,202.
Bet, mauprāt ir jāņem verā, ka 2010 bija mazāk cilvēku, kuri bija 75+ (7.6% no 2,118,855 = 161,032). 2020 g. bija 10.4% no 1,886,202 = 196,165. [es tikko šo info atradu - vajag pārbaudīt]

Man liekās, ka vajag ņemt šo verā, kad izdarām secinājumus par visu-iemēslu mirstību cilvēkiem 75+. Proti ir vairāk tagad vecu cilvēku.

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upd, situācija vienā valsts laboratorijā ir šādi: the second test (of retested high Ct-values positives is positive in 70-80% of cases.

That's an approx 25% chance of a FP after one test.

They redo it again before sending out the results, so by my reckoning there is a 25% of 25% chance of a high Ct-value FP getting through both checks, which is 6,25% - which is a massive number.

Maybe it is less than 25% of 25%, but we would only know that if they did three tests (so there might be a 90% chance of a positive test on the third retest of a positive high-Ct test). I don't have that info.

Still, based on this I believe that Ct-thresholds clearly have hugely important significance.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Vai esi rēķinājis, vai Latvijas (un Eiropas) novecošana, tas, ka vecāku cilvēku kļūst aizvien vairāk, nosedz vai nenosedz all case mortality pieaugumu?

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Tas ir ļoti interesants jautājums. Iespejams, ka kādi zinatnieki ir jau saņemuši naudu, lai to petītu.

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