brookings - Professor Adrian Hill from Oxford University [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]
brookings

[ userinfo | sc userinfo ]
[ archive | journal archive ]

Professor Adrian Hill from Oxford University [May. 27th, 2020|11:23 am]
Previous Entry Add to Memories Tell A Friend Next Entry
"It's a race against the virus disappearing, and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there's a 50% chance that we get no result at all. We're in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while."
linkpost comment

Comments:
[User Picture]
From:[info]smejmoon
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 11:38 am
(Link)
tie teksti, konteksti, un žurnālisti.
[User Picture]
From:[info]smejmoon
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 11:46 am
(Link)
From my understanding to have a proof that vaccine works they need a lot of test cases. And at they need to experiment a lot to try again and again, because first attempts will fail.

If they don't get enough test cases, they either won't find good vaccine or won't be able to assert that it's good, even if they've found it.

Harry Cockburn is doing terrible job at informing and good job at creating hype.
[User Picture]
From:[info]smejmoon
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 11:47 am
(Link)
and virus is mutating which creates another race against time.
[User Picture]
From:[info]brookings
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 11:48 am
(Link)
We're all gonna die!!!
[User Picture]
From:[info]smejmoon
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 11:53 am
(Link)
"test cases", maybe I'm heartless motherfucker after all..

How I understand that they create some vaccine, then they need to apply it to enough people, then they need to get infected. Mice they infect artificially, this doesn't work with humans. So need to wait for natural process.
That's lengthy and the better we are at containing the spread, the longer it will be. If people don't get infected, then we don't know if vaccine helps.

And this has to be done again and again, because first attempts probably won't succeed.

Or they need to create a lot of random vaccines and inject them even more of population. Instead of pinpointing the solution, use shotgun approach.

So it gets more and more expensive in terms or time, money, hope, etcetera.


If many people get infected, then it's faster to try out vaccines.
[User Picture]
From:[info]brookings
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 12:43 pm
(Link)
Think you are being a little unfair on Mr Cockburn (great name). That info seems broadly to be included in the article.
[User Picture]
From:[info]smejmoon
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 12:55 pm
(Link)
I think I have some stupidity aversion today; not enough sleep. But I tried really hard not to make any inappropriate puns. ;)

[User Picture]
From:[info]brookings
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 12:58 pm
(Link)
Oh, I dive straight in: any opportunity :)
[User Picture]
From:[info]mranarhs
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 11:53 am
(Link)
Es labāk lasīšu kaut ko par Vinniju Pūku.

P.s. Vīrusa ietekmē tiek pabīdīta malā diskusija par to, ko darīt ar to draņķa kapitālismu.
[User Picture]
From:[info]brookings
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 12:44 pm
(Link)
aizvietot to ar nedraņķa kapitālīsmu?
[User Picture]
From:[info]mranarhs
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 04:33 pm
(Link)
Nezinu. Par to vajadzētu runāt.

Smieklīgi, ka visu laiku runāja, nevarot aviosatiksmi apstādināt, lai arī klimatam to vajag. Covid apstādināja. Un kas mums slikts notika?

Ja ļoti grib, tad visu var.
[User Picture]
From:[info]gnidrologs
Date:May 27th, 2020 - 10:41 pm
(Link)
Nu pareizi. Ar labākām propagandas metodēm visu var labāk.
[User Picture]
From:[info]brookings
Date:May 28th, 2020 - 11:02 am
(Link)
Kas slikts? Gan jau redzēsim: dažas sfēras noteikti cietīs.
Vispār, tomēr, esmu pamanījis, ka Le Left uzskata, ka šī Covid krize ir liela iespēja viņiem panākt savu... tikai, ir jānoraksta tā nelielā parādu problēma. Patlaban viņu strateģija ir (1) apgalvot, ka aizņemties (patlaban) nav dārgi (gandrīz 'free money), un (2) ka aizņemties ir taču forši!

Piemēram: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXIJN82HsgU
[User Picture]
From:[info]mranarhs
Date:May 28th, 2020 - 11:38 am
(Link)
Es arī ejot pie zobārsta ciešu. Mani drusku fascinē cilvēku tieksme pēc kaut kādas bezrisku paradīzes.

Par aviosatiksmi tomēr būtu jārunā, cik daudz mums reāli ir nepieciešams lidot. Piemēram, cik daudzus vacation mierīgi varētu pataisīt par staycation, un viss cool?
[User Picture]
From:[info]mranarhs
Date:May 28th, 2020 - 11:39 am
(Link)
Piedod manu ignoranci, bet kas ir domāts ar Le Left?
[User Picture]
From:[info]brookings
Date:May 28th, 2020 - 11:55 am
(Link)
The Left - piemēram "https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/debt-equity-swaps-towards-fairer-post-pandemic-world/"

kurā var lasīt, ka "... the current crisis is a great opportunity for the Left"
[User Picture]
From:[info]mranarhs
Date:May 29th, 2020 - 06:44 pm
(Link)
Oh boy... Es esmu tā noguris no šitiem centieniem visur redzēt opportunity. Caurejā arī viņi redzētu opportunity?