Okay let’s take Feb 2022 non-Covid mortality for 18-39 year olds.

Table 2: Row 2553 - Row 2559

We have the following Person Years
Unvaccinated: 192,631
All other Vaccinated cohorts: 858,727
Total = 1,051,358

Unvaccinated percentage = 18.3%
Total Population of 18 - 39 year olds = (Total Person Years x 365/28) 13,705,202

I think we are supposed to be able to calculate the total population for each cohort by multiplying the Person Years by 12 (approximately) as we get a very similar figure for January:


Person Years
Unvaccinated 219,656
All other Vaccinated cohorts: 944,964
1,164,620 X 365/31 = 13,712,461


However the population of 18-39 year-old in England and Wales is…

(https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/demographics/age-groups/latest)
Age Profile:
18-24: 4,957,265
25-29: 3,901,735
30-34: 4,148,785
35-39: 3,981,630

Total: 16,989,415

The ONS Data was for England only, so we need to subtract the number of 18-39 year olds from Wales.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/populationandhouseholdestimateswales/census2021#:~:text=The%20percentage%20aged%2090%20years,aged%2015%20to%2064%20years.

Figure 3:

20-24: 95,900 + 91,800
25-29: 92,00 + 94,500
30-34: 95,400 + 100,800
35-39: 90,300 + 95,900

Total: 756,600

We don’t have figures for 18-19 year olds but we can multiply the figures for 15 to 19 year olds by 0.4% to get an estimate.

90,700 + 85,100 = 175,800 x 0.4
=70,320

Total 18-39 year-old Wales Population = 826,920

Subtract this from 16,989,415 to get total England population of 18-39 year-olds = 16,162,495

The ONS Data is, therefore, missing 2,457,293 people (16,162,495 - 13,705,202)

The ONS unvaccinated rate of 18.3% differs from the unvaccinated rate from the UKHSA of somewhere between 30 - 32%. (Figure 3: Dose 1) Week 04-08 2022

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1066759/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-13.pdf

Question:

What if the missing 2,457,293 were all unvaccinated?

Total Person Years of Unvaccinated 18-39 year olds: = 192,631 + 188,504 (2,457,293 x 28/365) = 381,135
Total Person Years of Vaccinated 18-39 year olds = 858,727
Total = 1,239,862

This would give an unvaccinated percentage of 30.7%, which is in accord with the UKHSA data.

It would also mean that there in Feb 2022, there were 90 unvaccinated deaths/381,135 person years (0.0236)
But a higher rate for the vaccinated:
321 vaccinated deaths/858,727 person years. (0.0373)

If the vaccinated were dying of non-Covid causes at the same rate as the unvaccinated in Feb 2022, then only 203 18-39 year olds should have died - not 321.

118 extra young deaths in the UK in Feb 2022.

What do you think? I may have made a mistake somewhere, of course, but that is how it seems to me at the moment.