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It seems counter intuitive that those who took the vaccines early would be healthier. The ONS itself states in the notes to the table that
"Caution must be taken when comparing mortality rates and counts as the characteristics of people in the different vaccination status groups, such as health, may differ, particularly due to the prioritisation of the vaccine to more clinically vulnerable people."
A more credible explanation could be found in the surprising-to-me fact that the ONS doesn't know how many people are unvaccinated. Here is some information from Full Fact (https://fullfact.org/health/expose-eng
"To estimate the size of the population eligible for vaccination, the government uses the ONS estimate for the population aged 12 and over, which is 48,375,273. With 43,250,509 first doses having been given in England, that would leave an estimated 5.1 million eligible people who have not received a dose of vaccine."
However
"The NIMS figure for the population aged 12 or over is 54,328,630, which would leave around 11 million eligible people in England who have not received a dose of vaccine."
NIMS = National Immunisation Management Service
I don't claim to know what is going on with any certainty, but if I understand this information correctly, then the ONS could be underestimating the number of unvaccinated in the UK - possibly to a significant extent. This would explain the difference in non-Covid death rates/100,000 in the recently vaccinated in the ONS data. I say that as not even the most fervent proponents of the vaccines claimed it would mean you are less likely to die from non-Covid ailments.
Another piece of evidence to support this is the information on the ONS website, namely:
"There will be a delay in publishing the next edition of the deaths by vaccination status dataset as we require data on subsequent booster vaccinations and will be updating to the 2021 Census populations. The next publication date will be announced on the release calendar when this is confirmed."
This is interesting as the Full Fact article states that "The ONS figure is an estimate of the population over a year ago based on the 2011 census".
My fear - based on the one-sided nature of information dissemination I have clearly seen up until now - is that the ONS knows that the death rates in the unvaccinated are (when the NIMS data and/or 2021 Census data is used) significantly higher across ALL vaccinated cohorts. And they are reluctant to publish, as a result.
"Caution must be taken when comparing mortality rates and counts as the characteristics of people in the different vaccination status groups, such as health, may differ, particularly due to the prioritisation of the vaccine to more clinically vulnerable people."
A more credible explanation could be found in the surprising-to-me fact that the ONS doesn't know how many people are unvaccinated. Here is some information from Full Fact (https://fullfact.org/health/expose-eng
"To estimate the size of the population eligible for vaccination, the government uses the ONS estimate for the population aged 12 and over, which is 48,375,273. With 43,250,509 first doses having been given in England, that would leave an estimated 5.1 million eligible people who have not received a dose of vaccine."
However
"The NIMS figure for the population aged 12 or over is 54,328,630, which would leave around 11 million eligible people in England who have not received a dose of vaccine."
NIMS = National Immunisation Management Service
I don't claim to know what is going on with any certainty, but if I understand this information correctly, then the ONS could be underestimating the number of unvaccinated in the UK - possibly to a significant extent. This would explain the difference in non-Covid death rates/100,000 in the recently vaccinated in the ONS data. I say that as not even the most fervent proponents of the vaccines claimed it would mean you are less likely to die from non-Covid ailments.
Another piece of evidence to support this is the information on the ONS website, namely:
"There will be a delay in publishing the next edition of the deaths by vaccination status dataset as we require data on subsequent booster vaccinations and will be updating to the 2021 Census populations. The next publication date will be announced on the release calendar when this is confirmed."
This is interesting as the Full Fact article states that "The ONS figure is an estimate of the population over a year ago based on the 2011 census".
My fear - based on the one-sided nature of information dissemination I have clearly seen up until now - is that the ONS knows that the death rates in the unvaccinated are (when the NIMS data and/or 2021 Census data is used) significantly higher across ALL vaccinated cohorts. And they are reluctant to publish, as a result.
Nopūsties:
