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Substitute for exploding.
Posted on 2008.06.19 at 01:33Story 3: Someone shows you a coin with a head and a tail on it. You watch him flip it 10 times and all 10 times it comes up heads. What is the probability that it will come up heads on the 11th flip?
A novice gambler would tell you, "Tales is more likely than heads, since things have to even out and tales is due to come up."
A math student would tell you, "We can't predict the future from the past, the odds are still even."
A professional gambler would say, "There must be something wrong with the coin or the way it is being flipped. I wouldn't bet with the guy flipping it, but I'd bet someone else that heads will come up again."
A novice gambler would tell you, "Tales is more likely than heads, since things have to even out and tales is due to come up."
A math student would tell you, "We can't predict the future from the past, the odds are still even."
A professional gambler would say, "There must be something wrong with the coin or the way it is being flipped. I wouldn't bet with the guy flipping it, but I'd bet someone else that heads will come up again."
--Barry Greenstein 'Ace On The River'