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Sep. 24th, 2020|10:59 am |
Es protams nezinu, kas istenībā ir FPR (0.1 -1%?). Meklēju šo (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080911v1.full.pdf). Protams nezinu, cik tas it ticāms, bet viņi raksta šo:
"Methods:
From a meta-analysis of external quality assessments of RT-PCR assays of RNA viruses, we derived a
conservative estimate of the range of false positive rates that can reasonably be expected in SARS-CoV2 testing, and analyzed the effect of such rates on analyses of regional test data and estimates of
population prevalence and asymptomatic ratio.
Findings
Review of external quality assessments revealed false positive rates of 0-16.7%, with an interquartile
range of 0.8-4.0%. Such rates would have large impacts on test data when prevalence is low. Inclusion of
such rates significantly alters four published analyses of population prevalence and asymptomatic ratio.
Interpretation
The high false discovery rate that results, when prevalence is low, from false positive rates typical of RTPCR assays of RNA viruses raises questions about the usefulness of mass testing; and indicates that
across a broad range of likely prevalences, positive test results are more likely to be wrong than are
negative results, contrary to public health advice about SARS-CoV-2 testing." |
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