( ... tālāk ... )
Key indicators will include movement forward of field hospitals, bulk fuel and ammunition;
marshalling of transport aircraft and rail cars; unit recalls; social media activity; deployment of large forces
towards the border and into Belarus; and intensified information operations and border provocations, among
others.
The Russian intention is twofold: if possible, to strike
through Lithuania to link up with Kaliningrad, cutting off the Baltic States altogether; if not, to seize and hold
Estonia and possibly Latvia to demonstrate NATO’s inability to enforce Article 5 and fracture the Alliance. The
pretext would likely be claims that Russian ethnic minorities have been attacked or oppressed. NATO would
see these preparations, and much would depend on an early decision to posture for defense. Russian
disinformation would be intense and many allies would be hesitant to react. If the North Atlantic Council delays
until after Russian forces have crossed the border, the lost time could be fatal. In this contingency, the US should
immediately form a coalition based on its strongest and closest allies.
If all goes well, the Baltic States will be arrayed for defense with seven active brigades and three eFP battalions,
augmented by one US heavy brigade in Lithuania and US airborne brigades in Latvia and Estonia, before
Russian forces reach NATO territory. Reserve units will secure critical infrastructure and provide local defense.
On D-Day, the most likely Russian course of action will be an attack by the 1st GTA, with one tank division
(with two brigades) and two airborne regiments, from Belarus on the axis Minsk–Vilnius–Kaunas–Kaliningrad.
A supporting attack,
conducted with one motor rifle division (with two brigades) and one airborne regiment, will attempt to seize
Riga along the axis Daugavpils–Jekabpils–Riga. This operation will feature parachute and heliborne operations
in rear areas to seize key crossings over the Daugava River.
These operations will follow major road and rail networks and will ignore national boundaries. As a theater
reserve, the Western Military District will retain control of one air assault division, one Spetsnaz brigade, and
one heavy artillery brigade. Spetsnaz units will not be used as maneuver units but will instead carry out attacks
against critical nodes and infrastructure. They will be used boldly and aggressively deep inside Baltic territory
and deserve serious consideration from commanders and planners.
In the attack, Russian commanders will advance aggressively under heavy artillery, supported by attack
helicopters, fixed wing close air support, cyberattacks and electronic warfare. Small tactical drones will be used
in “swarms” to spot artillery targets. While force ratios in terms of maneuver units are not overwhelming,
Russian superiority in armor, artillery fires, electronic warfare and close air support will be strong. Combat
experience will also provide an edge. They will show little regard for civilian casualties and will be prepared to
sustain losses themselves. All Russian unit leaders will understand the importance of winning quickly, as every
delay will give NATO more time to react.( ... tālāk ... )
Kanādas armijas atvaļinātais ģenerālis M.Barils norādīja, ka pēc tikšanās ar militārajiem speciālistiem nācies izteikt neizpratni par Latvijas parlamenta rīcību Otavas konvencijas jautājumā. Latvijas militāro struktūru atbildīgās amatpersonas norādījušas, ka problēmām nevajadzēt būt, jo Latvija jau ievēro konvencijas principus, turklāt kājnieku mīnas pasaulē vairs neesot aktuālas, jo tiekot izmantota cita, modernāka tehnika.
Uz viesu neizpratni A.Laksa atbildēja, ka 8.Saeimā lielākajai daļai deputātu nav politiskās un likumdošanas pieredzes, tāpēc jau uz kādu no nākamajām komisijas sēdēm tiks uzaicināts aizsardzības ministrs Ģirts Valdis Kristovskis, lai sniegtu paskaidrojumus par Latvijas kavēšanos konvencijas ratificēšanā. Komisijas priekšsēdētājs pauda pārliecību, ka jau tuvākajā nākotnē Saeima savu neizdarību labos un Otavas konvencija tiks ratificēta.
Tikšanās noslēgumā Kanādas armijas atvaļinātais ģenerālis M.Barils norādīja, ka, jo vairāk valstu pievienosies konvencijai un to ratificēs, jo “neērtāk būs” lielākajām pasaules mīnu ražotājām un uzkrājējvalstīm — Krievijai, ASV, Ķīnai, Indijai, Baltkrievijai, Pakistānai, Korejai. “Būtu tikai loģiski, ka tāda maza, demokrātiska un pavisam nemilitāra valsts kā Latvija parakstītu šo nozīmīgo konvenciju,” sarunas noslēgumā teica [Arnolds] Laksa.
https://www.vestnesis.lv/ta/id/8044
| ← Previous day | (Calendar) | Next day → |