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Mar. 19th, 2020|08:08 am |
Is Covid-19 likely to be at pandemic proportions for 2 years?
Scott Hsieh
Scott Hsieh, works at David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA
Answered Mon · Upvoted by David Chan, MD from UCLA, Stanford Oncology Fellowship and David Cox, PhD Medicine and Healthcare & Microbiology, Texas Tech University (1979)
Here’s the problem with Covid-19:
If we do nothing, it goes out of control. There is nearly universal agreement on this point. Every week the number of infected people doubles or triples, according to the best estimates of R0 today. Within about two months, hospitals start to collapse under the pressure (Italy) and can survive only by building emergency new facilities using help from the rest of the country (Wuhan). However, if you really are doing nothing, then two months later the rest of the country falls down and no one can help you. At this point, there are no more ICU beds left and the mortality rate goes from 2% to 5-10% because we run out of respirators.
On the other hand, if we declare a state of emergency … schools shut down, airports virtually close, and the country goes on lockdown. All for what, like 3,000 cases?? Then if the disease is successfully suppressed a few months later, everything opens back up and we look around and say, gee, why did we even do that?! Why did the country shut down when the ordinary flu killed 100x more people this year? Didn’t we way overreact?
But the difference between 5,000 cases and 5 million cases is 10 weeks of inaction. That is why governments around the world are taking severe and enormous action now, because we are at the edge of the precipice.
To answer the original question — will Covid-19 be considered a pandemic in two years? That depends on us. Please, if you have a cough and/or a fever, stay at home and stay away from others. You probably have a cold, but if you’re a minimally symptomatic carrier, you can do your part by making sure your particular Covid-19 ends at you and doesn’t get passed on to another person. |
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