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23. Okt 2020|18:41 |
THE RISK LANDSCAPE (EXISTENTIAL CATASTROPHE)
Asteroid or comet impact within next 100 years: 1 in 1,000,000
Supervolcanic eruption within next 100 years: 1 in 10,000
Stellar explosion within next 100 years: 1 in 1,000,000,000
Nuclear war within next 100 years: 1 in 1,000
Climate change within next 100 years: 1 in 1,000
Other environmental damage within next 100 years: 1 in 1,000
Naturally arising pandemics within next 100 years: 1 in 10,000
Engineered pandemics within next 100 years: 1 in 30
Unaligned artificial intelligence within next 100 years: 1 in 10
Unforeseen anthropogenic risks within next 100 years: 1 in 30
Other anthropogenic risks within next 100 years: 1 in 50
I think the chance of an existential catastrophe striking humanity in the next hundred years is about one in six. |
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