Canary in the Coal Mine - Day

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

8:47PM - The Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe

"Although Rus­sia’s military activism has received significant policy attention by the United States and NATO, transatlantic understanding of Eu­rope’s susceptibility to and complicity with Rus­sian influence—­which constitutes an equally serious threat to Eu­ro­pean security—is completely lacking. A disunited, po­liti­cally para­lyzed, and antidemo­cratic Eu­rope would erode the ability of NATO to defend and uphold transatlantic norms, values, and institutions, seriously undermining and ultimately questioning the future of the alliance. The stakes are enormous."

"Just as the West demonstrated the superiority of its economic and po­liti­cal model in the 1989–1991 era, which led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin may be attempting to affect a reverse outcome by actively discrediting the Western liberal demo­cratic system as well as offering the alternative model of its illiberal managed democracy and siloviki-­style economic systems, which could undermine the cohesiveness and stability of NATO and the Eu­ro­pean Union. Once this outcome is achieved, a new Eu­ro­pean security architecture can be negotiated."

"Malign Rus­sian influence can be likened to a virus that attacks democracies. ­After inconspicuously penetrating a country through what appears to be a harmless and most likely l ­ egal business transaction, the virus begins to spread purposefully through local networks, quietly taking hold of its demo­cratic host. Demo­cratic institutions are able to function as normal. The virus initially thrives as it gradually works its way through the host apparatus clandestinely. Over time, the host countries’ economies and institutions become compromised to such a point that the very institutions designed to combat corruption and monopolistic practices (e.g., anticorruption offices, interior ministries, prosecutor’s offices) are fully disabled, allowing Rus­sian influence to rapidly spread to the point where the infected democracy is rendered incapable of resisting Rus­sian influence, which allows for the Kremlin’s effective control over the government."

https://www.csis.org/analysis/kremlin-playbook

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